The growth in crude production in the Atlantic Basin will have a profound impact on regional crude supply/demand balances. According to PIRA Energy Group, a sizeable crude surplus will develop within the region, and crude will be forced to seek markets elsewhere, primarily in the rapidly growing countries in Asia.
The Atlantic Basin is broadly defined as including the Americas, Europe, and Africa. According to PIRA, refinery runs in these countries have declined in recent years after peaking in 2005-2007, but they are expected to slowly resume growth with increases in the U.S. and Latin America more than offsetting declines in Europe. (Crude production growth is being driven by the shale/tight oil “revolution” in the U.S. and increased oil sands development in Canada).